My name is Nicolas Merton. Here a data in today's May 20th of 2020. Well, folks, I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are and with another day comes another wave of excessive monetary policy in the world of central banks and predominantly here in the United States, the Federal Reserve has enacted that it's going to be entering into A new stimulus program coming up here in the month of June that's, going to be providing a ton of capital relief to not only small and medium sized businesses, but also to local and state governments. When we talk about the size of these obligations that need to be covered by the Fed we're talking easily about, if not hundreds of millions of dollars to trillions of additional dollars in stimulus, so this is going to have massive ramifications and I want to discuss the Ramifications of that as we go throughout the video. So if you have a lot of things to discuss right after our quick sponsor Applause, Music, Music, all righty everyone, so let's go ahead and start by taking a look across the board for the market. As we can see here over the last 24 hours, the vast majority of crypto currencies right now are faded in the green right now. But at the same time, even though there is a favor in the green, most of them are in a node trend. Stand here between one to two percent to the upside or downside, and luckily right now, we've actually got a lot of our top ten plays as well as some of our favorites and the lead steam.
One of our top 10 plays up 28. We got you BT. One of our other favorites here on the channel along with that as well nano rim chain link a lot of other good players here. I know we as well have card no, no picking up steam and have people been talking about that so again, a lot of good plays there Ave another defy play in the lending space. Lots of interesting plates doing well, here, we're gon na be diving into price. Don'T worry, I just want to go ahead and actually get a jump into this article as a preface to this discussion, because this is probably the biggest news that you know like these amount of people, maybe are talking about the world of Finance, but I don't think People really take the ramifications of how big this stimulus package is going to be so the Federal Reserve. Yesterday they were doing a meeting where they had secretary minuchin. They had a lot of different congressional members coming on and asking questions for Jay Powell, the Fed chair. We see in the photo there and, along with that steam edition a few others. So what we had was Jay pal coming out yesterday on the livestream announcing a new lending program, that's going to be launching likely on June 1st. This lending program has a major focus on small to medium sized businesses, as well as meeting the obligations for local and state governments where they've been short on revenue over the last few months to to covent 19 in the lock down.
Now I want to make it very clear here: I think, at the end of the day, it's understandable, if we're gon na be providing stimulus to hedge funds and a lot of other major institutions. It be fair to kind of balance the books out and help small and medium sized businesses who, in many cases, have been told to shut down their operations, while large corporations like Walmart have easily been able to operate. So I think that in that case, I understand where the feds coming from and wanting to provide stimulus to these smaller businesses should have come sooner, in my opinion and at the same time, but taking them to account right, we need to understand the ramifications. This is going to have just like the previous QE programs on inflation and broadening the money supply. Okay, now again, this money, you know talking about on a consumer basis on products and goods and services, the inflation ramifications. This will have to be seen over time. Sometimes you can inflate the money supply and it doesn't hit the overall market and lead to increased velocity increased. You know, exchange of dollars in hands. So in this case, we might not see too much effect on consumer prices, but this does broader the money supply and therefore it will inflate the value of a variety of different assets across the world, from stocks to properties, to bonds to even digital assets, at cryptocurrencies. As well as commodities in gold and silver, and we really need to talk about what assets are going to be leading after we've realized that the Fed is going to be continuing stimulus here, I think it's already become apparent to most of us, but really now it's Becoming more clear than ever here and again, it is not going to come cheap.
You can read through some of these articles guys we don't know exactly the the full number of it, but you can see that a lot of these local and state governments already had massive obligations as well, as is with the large entitlement programs large sets of debt. That they already had on their books, a lot of states and local governments have not been balanced in their books and there's a lot of debt. We was look at the federal debt. No one ever looks at city and state debt, eta, if you take that into the equation, you're talking about a few additional trillions of dollars and debt that doesn't even really get talked about, so the Fed is again trying to help and step it adjust meet. The short term obligations, which again are massive in this case with the lack of revenue we've, had so let's just go ahead and see what bitcoin is doing right now. Bitcoin at the moment, still over the past week has been continuously pressing up ever since back here. Really back in early May for the rest of this month, really over the last two weeks, we've been pressing up against this line of resistance. That we've had a logarithmic chart that we have yet to have a close above since back here in 2017. You can signal here that the confidence and not seeing price come down and test 8500 continues to send higher lows each day. This is showing clear confidence here that prices want to go higher.
We haven't gotten to close above there and until we get that I can't be too confident going to 11000, like we have on our target target line here for the chart, but to be fair guys, I would not bet against this. I wouldn't try shorting the downward. I really think that this is signaling. A lot of confidence to go through will really see here, probably in the next 24 to 48 hours, if that's going to come into fruition so to either be a really exciting weekend or probably one where we have to look for it to come down to make Support here at 8500 again, but who knows right? Who knows we're gon na get that breakout. Yet again, I think what's likely is. If we break out here, I don't think we're going to 20k instantly. I think what we're gon na do is we're gon na get up to your turns around the upper 10000 to 11000 range and we'll come down and test this line of resistance and make it support multiple times before. We eventually pick up pace later on going in to the fall into the winter, so it could be very boring summer here for crypto markets. For the most part, we push sideways after all, we've had a pretty exciting few months here, but nonetheless signaling strength. And again, I can't tell you a market outside of maybe gold and silver that's gon na be moving up like Bitcoin could going from 9 to 11000 in that short period of time, go here.
Tall coin dominance as well. I think this is against signaling continued strength. The crypto markets want to move higher, higher, continuous lows here, significant lows and also generally higher highs. Here right. We continuously set a multitude of highs as we go through each different part of the cycle, and it looks like somewhere here again going into the fall or winter. We could really start to pick up pace for all coins, as we discussed yesterday. Another market that moves very similar to a crypto that doesn't get talked about. A lot is cannabis markets again, whether you guys invested in our out or whether you like it or not, it doesn't really matter. At the end of the day, these markets move very similar like because there's, a very large retail audience in this case as there's been a lot of people going on coinbase, lattes exchanges, getting exposure to Bitcoin and this time of the the pullback and everything is people Getting the paycheck protection program as well 7 fears about the current state of the government, current state of economy. In this case, we can see that cryptic. Excuse me on cannabis, in this case, it's moving up quite nicely again, setting up a new higher level here now I want to see apologies on that guys. I want to see a break above this line because, technically speaking, this would be an ascending wedge, which is usually a bearish pattern, but with the kind of volume that we're getting here on not only some of the major cannabis place, but also on the ETF and Stuff, as well as the consistency in Green price action at higher that we have not seen during the entire bear market, I think this is showcasing that again, whether or not this sector still has a while to go before it really matures.
The bottom is going to have a much quicker rebound because of Fed's stimulus. These equities have to move up to some degree if the fed continuously injects capital, unless things are just absolutely terrible for the industry, all right like no one's buying cannabis or things of that sort. There'S no cash flow coming through that's. What I can still draw right, but when you're you know, when you have the money printer going BRR and it's going at levels not seen before in history, it's – probably best not to bet against the market. And this is what happened to a lot of people who bought puts trying to short the market, even though they timed it great. With kovat and everything that happened, they still got blown out of the water when the Fed started to inject mass amounts. Monetary policy take a look here: commodities as well right, silver, picking up pace here, send a nice significant level of support up here. Continue the cycle here and what we've been seeing is not only silver rebounding up to where it was back here in March, before the crazy sell off that we had across the board and all assets, but the gold of silver ratio showcasing. That silver is really picking up Pacers this declines. It means that silver is not only outpacing the market, but that likely commodities have entered into a bull market. If we take a look back here, 2008 same exact formation, short term technical pattern leading to a breakout in gold leading into silver at the beginning, kind of shaping up for the next commodity cycle, as both commodity is usually decline.
Alright, so this as the ratios going up, it usually means that gold and silver decline in its usual when gold wins out and now after that, for the next few years, from 2009 to 2011, really to 2000 elite part of 2008. We took the ratio from 83 down to 32. What does this remind you of this right here, the short term technical pattern, so you nificant breakout with gold and silver selling off to setting in their final lows and in this case, silver starting to lead the way it's a signal. The commodities right now are in a bull market. You could take a look at the ratios here. You can see that over the last. You really you know back here since 2016 right we went bearish on equities back here. In 2018, Gold has been the best investment that you could have made compared to equities, or, I would say, excels, excluding Bitcoin, and so, if you're, just comparing golden equities like the SampP 500. In this case, the broader SampP 500 in this case has been outpaced by gold since back here in October 2016, if you bought down here, you're doing pretty damn well you're outpacing stocks, even in a world with Fed monetary policy in a showcase, is the importance of Not getting too caught up looking to one specific asset, take a look at silver here guys over the last couple of weeks right I've been setting continuously higher lows here since back here and the bottom it set, and here in September 2018.
Look at how similar this is to the bottom. We had four silver back here: multiple higher lows and a continuation, much higher going into the further cycle here into a multi day, really almost up to a decade – bull market. Here, from back in December of 2000, all the way up to August of 2011 when we set the peak we're setting up for that next decade, long cycle guys this is going to have ramifications for the next coming years and it's going to reflect, and not only The performance of gold, but also silver and likely in new emerging assets like Bitcoin again. This is there's no coincidence why this is happening. There'S no coincidence why, after the having event with the reduction of newly issued Bitcoin providing relief on the sell side, pressure Bitcoin due to miners not having to sell as much dollar bought own dollar volume of Bitcoin and also the Fed injecting large amounts of capital here, Family funds, hedge funds, every day, investors, even investment bankers across the world, there's a good chunk of people, especially with the recent catalyst we had with Paul Tudor Jones coming out in support of it. Shema a lot of other well known investors, starting to speak highly Bitcoin. This time, people are starting to realize whether they fully understand it or not. This thing is winning the race and it's winning by a longshot equities are doing decent gold and silver are doing pretty good too.
Nothing is performing like Bitcoin right so again I don't want to just you know. I don't mean to just be a cheerleader here guys for, for you know, you know an asset that we all appreciate and stuff. Bitcoin is an amazing technology and I think it offers a great opportunity for us to be able to hedge against the system to some degree. But this is just looking solely at market data, taking the full macro viewpoint here and trying to cut it as much bias as possible right now, whether you use Bitcoin or not, or whether you're a fan of it or not, it doesn't matter right. You know again it's the same same goes for my opinion. Right again, I could love Bitcoin or I could hate it. They like Warren Buffett and think it's rat poison, but you know, rat poison, tends not to go up from around the low 3000 range upwards towards nearly 10000 in a matter of a couple of weeks. So I mean this. This really speaks to something and, as we take a look at it, we're taking a look at the daily here, but if we take a look at the weekly and we're just gon na head and turn off our drawings here take a look at the monthly. This is looking really confident. This to me looks like a chart: that's ready to start picking up pace and, in turn to the next cycle, of course, bear in mind over a longer period of time, as we've talked about again, and I will emphasize multiple times because it's probably the most important Thing that people, I think, sometimes struggle to get in crypto markets, because things can come so quick.
Each of the cycles is broadening its time horizon, make sure we still have to have an event happening every four years in Bitcoin, but I think that we're gon na start seeing a lag and a disconnect from that having event as we go through, because the major Stock to flow changes have already been implemented right. The the reductions have already been integrated to a large degree and after that, we'll continue to reduce it half and half every year, but that effect will have less and less of effect. And along with that, as you talk about market to scale you're, not only talking about having to get to much higher valuations that previously were on thought of before, but it's gon na come with decaying returns and it's gon na take a longer period of time. Because of that right, you know it's it's a much more difficult, as we've probably emphasized before here on the channel it's much more difficult from an asset to go to a hundred one to one hundred billion dollars right. You know it was sorry. Let me let me rephrase that it's much more difficult for an asset to go from a hundred billion dollar asset to you know, for example, a trillion dollar asset than it is for it to go from a hundred to one hundred billion right, that's, 100 X 1. To 100 billion, but the kind of liquidity that you need and the time you need to go from a 100 billion to a trillion dollar market cap, some much more difficult and that continues to scale up if you're talking about a trillion to ten trillion dollars.
Just take a look at goal and just take a look at all these other markets out there it's dependent on how we can actually get the liquidity into the market in order to justify that price. Can Bitcoin really provide that hedge that's, the real question, and if it can and we can provide the conduits the outlets for people to be able to get exposure to this new asset and actually utilize it as its intended to be it's your own custodian to own Bitcoin and be able to hedge against monetary inflation, then, in this case, bitcoins already set for a hundred K or higher right. This is our general target range and we are actually quite conservative comparative to most people. We believe it's going to be at the end of 2020 in novemberdecember, where we reach up to this high setting in 47 months from the bottom here back in December 2018. We'Re already well on our way into the cycle, guys we're, exactly where we need to be whether you're looking at the stock to flow model, whether you're looking at pretty much any data science model Bitcoin, is where it should be right now and it's, starting to cusp Up and look like, sometimes here going in to the fall into the winter that we could get back up to 20 K and the Fed, as well as other central banks like the ECB in the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China, the Bank of England and the countless other central banks across the world they're doing the same.
Damn thing they're, making it easy to get there so putting it simple, enjoy the ride. Let'S keep up with all the interesting things that are going on guys and if you like, this video, please drop a like it's, always appreciated. I always love hearing from you guys as well. So leave a comment down below. If you have some thoughts on this, if something's going on at the ECB and the Bank of Japan or one of these other central bank's, that again follows suit with this nature that you guys think it would be important to talk about. Please leave it down below. In the comments talk about anything that's got you interested at the moment, love to hear from you all, but until the next video. Thank you so much for watching. I always love being here with you all, and I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day. I'Ll talk to y'all soon and I'll, see you all in the next video take care.