Secrets of Long Term Bitcoin Price Predictions REVEALED


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Medium Post:

Power Laws:

5 Customer Segments of Tech Adoption:

Bitcoin Price history:

@Moonoverlord on Twitter points out long term bull market potential:

Interactive chart for technology adoption in the US over the years:

As I get into this article you’ll see these price borders and the predicted years Bitcoin will hit these points.So a power law for those who may not be familiar is a functional relationship regarding statistics that involves two quantities, where a relative change in one quantity results in a proportional relative change in the other quantity, independent of the initial size of those quantities: one quantity varies as a power of another.

So as we take a look at the graphs presented here, notice there are two corridors or sections, one red, one green. With the red section representing the very volatile moonshots and crash landings, and the green corridor looks to be the consolidation phases. It’s pointed out that bitcoin spends roughly equal amounts of time in each corridor meaning that the duration of a hefty rise and fall in price is roughly equal to the amount of time spent in phases of consolidation.I know many of you are watching to get your fix of some price predictions, keep in mind that this particular model is not exactly precise and is focused on the long-term trends of Bitcoin. so ACCORDING to this particular model, it is showing that Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 until the year 2021 and Bitcoin will not be lower than $100,000 any time after the year 2028. Likewise, it’s showing that Bitcoin will not reach $1,000,000 before the year 2028 and after the year 2037, Bitcoin will not be less than $1,000,000. Pretty much it is showing the limitations of how high or how low Bitcoin can go over time. Also notice the years on the x-axis of the graph and how they are grouped closer together as the years progress. I believe this was designed to demonstrate the fact that (as it’s pointed out in the article) investors who buy at the top of a bull run during the fomo mania need to wait longer amounts of time as each cycle comes and goes before they can see any kind of gains of that investment. Translated to as time moves on, bull markets will last longer and also take longer to hit all time highs as the bulls fade away and bears file in and the cycles repeat. This concept was also pointed out by Moonoverlord on twitter with his thoughts on velocity as it applies to Bitcoin and adoption. His tweet says: “With each dollar added to the marketcap it becomes that much harder to grow and the percentages become more incremental. A bull market at this scale will take years to play out to full effect”

From here you can venture down a whole bunch of rabbit holes regarding trends of technology adoption, whether or not power laws will remain relevant or accurate in perpetuity regarding the price trends of Bitcoin, the fact that other cryptocurrencies exist and whether or not it’s possible for Bitcoin to be dethroned and how that event would affect the distribution of investments in the crypto space. It’s all brand new, it’s all experimental, and we have the unique privilege to be witnessing the beginnings of this disruptive technology all play out.


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Comment (29)

  1. Hi, I'm new here! I was very impressed with your presentation of the long term outlook and how it happens.

    Have any interest in sailing on a Neel 51 for a few days and talking crypto?

  2. In 2018, Peterson applied Metcalfe's law to the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, and showed that Metcalfe's law determined over 70% of Bitcoin's value.[13] In a yet unpublished work, Peterson provided a mathematical derivation that linked traditional time-value-of-money concepts to Metcalfe value, and used Bitcoin and Facebook as numerical examples of the proof.

  3. I think/hope btc will hit a million sooner. I think we will see people fomo in at an unbelievable rate soon after the next halving which will snowball out of control. I think this especially holds true if we are in a world recession in which the U.S. gets added to the list of other countries that have negative interest rates.

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  7. Sorry to pop the bubble here so soon, but actually Bitcoin will suffer an irrevocable crash NEXT YEAR due to an immutable technical disruption in the blockchain itself. I just so happen to know the EXACT HOUR when the calamity will strike. It will occur instantaneously. I can currently say no more specifically on the subject than that, but will let y'all know the DAY BEFORE it is set to happen! (My time-traveling associate will duly inform me beforehand.)

    In the meantime, if you do some research back to as early as 2009 (the same year Bitcoin was created) and into 2011, you'll find where the code for Bitcoin Core was being fiddled around with in terms of alleged technical malfunctions occurring with the blockchain that allegedly required "repairs" so to speak. These suggested malfunctions certainly DID cause crashes in its price even at less than USD $1.00.

    In this upcoming instance, there will be NO OPTIONS for any such repairs to be made. Bitcoin will bite the dust. It will be a done deal. No more Bitcoin blockchain. Kaput. Nil. Out the window. Sayonara. RIP😶


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