Crypto Hírek

All But One of Top 20 Cryptos See Green, Bitcoin Safely Above $6,700

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Crypto markets are seeing another wave of growth, with Bitcoin trading above $6,700 és 19 out of the top 20 coins firmly in the green.

Sunday, September 23: crypto markets are seeing another wave of green. All but one of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap have made gains over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

Market visualization from Coin360

Market visualization from Coin360

After suffering a slight decline yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded today, trading above $6,700 throughout the day. The cryptocurrency is at $6,734 as of press time, up 0.9 percent on the day.

Bitcoin is also up 3.3 percent over the past 7 days, and up 5 percent up on the month. Despite that, Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped slightly, down from 55.6 percent a week ago to 51.2 percent at press time, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin price chart

Bitcoin price chart. Source: Cointelegraph Bitcoin Price Index

Ethereum (ETH), after having briefly given up its position during a massive Ripple (XRP) rally, is now back to the second spot by market capitalization.

The coin is up 2.6 percent in 24 hours to press time, currently trading at $245. Ethereum is up a significant 10.4 percent on the week, but it has not yet managed to recuperate its monthly losses, still down around 9 percent over the past 30 days.

Ethereum price chart

Ethereum price chart. Source: Cointelegraph Ethereum Price Index

The third largest cryptocurrency by market cap Ripple (XRP) is the only one to see some losses among the top 20 coins, according to CoinMarketCap. Following a period of immense growth earlier this week, Ripple is down 0.23 percent over the past 24 hours, to trade at $0.568.

Ripple price chart

Ripple price chart. Source: Cointelegraph Ripple Price Index

Crypto markets are holding their gains firmly, with total market cap slightly up over the past 24 hours, currently at $227 billion. Following a significant sell-off that started on September 5, the market has only recently climbed back above the $220 billion point.

Total market capitalization chart

Total market capitalization chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

The sixth largest coin by market cap Stellar (XLM) is seeing the most gains among the top 20. Stellar’s price has surged more than 20 percent in 24 hours to press time, currently at $0.289. The altcoin experienced considerable growth this week, up around 40 percent over the past 7 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Cardano (ADA) is up 10.6 percent today, currently trading at $0.09. The altcoin’s weekly gains constitute more than 31 percent, according to CoinMarketCap.

CNBC’s Ran Neuner has noted in a tweet that cryptocurrencies are gaining significant momentum, pointing out that the daily trade volume of the entire market is approaching $14 billion, which is “the most volume we have seen in a while.

Haza Crypto Hírek Irrational Exuberance Revisited: Is Crypto The New Dot-Com Bubble?
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Irrational Exuberance Revisited: Is Crypto The New Dot-Com Bubble?
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Irrational Exuberance Revisited: Is Crypto The New Dot-Com Bubble?

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And should we even focus on ‘bubble or not’ that much?

If you have ever encountered the word ‘cryptocurrencyor ‘bitcoin,’ there is a solid chance that within the same paragraph or even sentence the word ‘bubblecould also be found. Bubble has indeed become a shibboleth for crypto sceptics, especially after the market soared at the end of 2017, and the widening gap between valuation and intrinsic value of digital currencies and tokens became ostensible to many.

Yet not all bubbles are created equal: some bubble-framed references and metaphors tend to surface more frequently in media space than others. Perhaps the crypto’s most conspicuous historical analogy is the dot-com bubble of the early 2000-sand quite understandably so. There is almost irresistible temptation to draw parallels between the burst of the booming market that emerged around early applications of a disruptive communication technology, and the highly volatile market that emerged around the blockchain ecosystem.

The recent slump in crypto prices has only made face similarities more pronounced. As Bloombergreported earlier this week, VanEck’s MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 10 Index, which tracks the prices of top ten digital assets, went down 80 percent compared to its January high. Symbolically, this development is now more dramatic than the Nasdaq Composite Index’s 78 percent nosedive at the height of the dot-com crash. The overall market cap dipped below $200 billion, shrinking by a factor of more than three from the all-time high. Does this mean that crypto market is doomed to follow the pattern of the early internet boom’s infamous explosion?

Bubbles and dot-coms

In the simplest terms, market bubbles occur when assets are traded at prices that by far exceed their fundamental value. Even though this can happen in virtually every market, tech industries, widely construed, are especially prone to such dynamics. Perhaps this is due to the human tendency to get excited over potentially disruptive technologies and then engage in speculative behavior fueled by this excitement. The technology in question does not necessarily have to be a digital onethe British ‘railway maniaof the mid-19th century could serve as agood example of an ‘analogbubble.

The mid to late 1990s saw the rapid growth of internet-powered consumer markets. Sensing the ‘next big thing,’ entrepreneurs and investors flocked into the space, inflating each other’s ardor along with valuation of internet startups, which sprouted prolifically in the bull market. At the time, adding .com to a company’s name did the same to its stock as adding ‘blockchain’does today. The Nasdaq Composite stock market index was the one that tracked many of those technology companies, and it was doing greatuntil a certain moment. At its peak in March 2000, the index reached the value of$6 trillion. A few years before, then-Chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspanfamously observed that ‘irrational exuberancetends to ‘unduly escalate asset values.Once the dot-com bandwagon headed steeply downhill, the term ‘irrational exuberanceentered just about every analytical reflection on what has happened.

The bubbleburst. Expectations were set too high, the market was too overheated, and many of the dotcomsproved unable to come up with sustainable business models, let alone deliver services worth anything comparable to what investors poured on them.  In less than two years, more than half of the companies folded, while trillions of dollars of investorsmoney just vanished. As the widespread narrative goes, the explosion of the dot-com bubble helped weed out numerous opportunistic players, thus clearing the way for those serious companies that had authentic ideas and a truly clairvoyant visiontoday’s giants like Amazon and Apple usually among the primary examples. Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin famouslycharacterized these events as ‘creative destruction’ és, along with many others, pointed out that the crypto market might be following the same trajectory.

Degrees of similarity

Indeed, the dot-com bubble and the hypothetical crypto bubble share many striking commonalities, from powerful waves of irrational exuberance fueling their explosive growth to grandiose disruptive promise of their underlying technologies to trend lines describing the dynamics of their capitalization. As perMorgan Stanley’s March report, cryptocurrency price chart is broadly mirroring the Nasdaq index chart from the turn of the century; the number of bear cycles and rebounds, as well as their depth, are largely similar, as are the regularities in trading volumes. Some other very smart people have independently reachedsimilar conclusions by using fancy statistical techniques to compare those two sets of data points. Így, is it warranted that the painful burst is what invariably awaits us all? Or has it already happened in January, meaning that we are now living through the gloomy days of decay akin to the dot-com post-wreck 2001? The unsatisfying answer is that we cannot know for sure.

One thing to bear in mind is a number of important features that are still different between the two sets of circumstances. The most obvious one to look at is the size of the market, even though the relevance of this metric is debatable: whereas the Nasdaq Composite index amounted to six trillion dollars on its brightest day, the crypto market’s high-water mark is around half a trillion. At least we can rest assured that the damage to the overall economy in the case of collapse would be less dramatic than eighteen years ago.

A more consequential variable might be the pace at which the markets move. According to the same analysis by Morgan Stanley, in blockchain industry things happen 15 times faster than in the early internet sector. This is a product of a number of important distinctions between the two cases. One is that thanks to Twitter, Reddit, and Telegram, the information environment around crypto markets is richer, more transparent and more responsive to relevant (and not-so-relevant, for that matter) signals. Another point is that, unlike dot-com startups that were mainly supported by venture capital flowing from institutional actors, crypto markets rely on millions ofretail investors globally a good deal. In sum, the ‘crypto bubbleis a more diverse constellation of actors who have a wealth of information about the market, which is arguably more distributed geographically than any other. This looks like a set of structural differences that could yield outcomes that are different from what the story of dot-coms would predict.

In histhoughtful analysis published on Hacker Noon during the first downward tide of the year, Noam Levenson argues that the digital asset market has not yet reached the levels of adoption and capitalization needed for a proper ‘popping.Moreover, the dot-com-like crash might not even take place at all, and instead crypto markets would just bounce between bear and bull cycles until widespread adoption helps them entrench in a less volatile territory. The point is, we might well be past the crash, or simply in another loop of bear market on our way to the new heights. It is impossible to assert one or another with confidence, since there is only so much that can be learnt and extrapolated from the dot-com casea case that is somewhat similar but not identical to the current state of the crypto market.

Does it even matter?

Ultimately, whether digital assets are a bubble or not is no more than a debate over terminology. Even within the crypto community, it is clear to the majority that the present-day tangible output that blockchain-based ventures can offer lags far behind the figures observed at the home page of coinmarketcap.com. It is also clear that these two values will have to realign at some point, similar to how it eventually unfolded with internet companies. The right questions to ask are what the timeline will be, and what the resultant configuration of the industry will look like; what share of today’s players will survive and which ones will eventually make it to the status of Amazons and Googles of the blockchain industries of the future; whether the industry will progress through a devastating crash or a relatively soft landing.

According to a radical viewpoint, nearly every market is a bubble, and a market’s progression is just a sequence of inflations and pops. The general sentiment among crypto stakeholders seems to be that the price drop is unavoidable at some point, and many of the less viable projects will have to go. Further still, even the stock market frenzy around potentially disruptive technologies might be viewed as an unlikely means of accomplishing a greater good, opening up the floodgates of capital for industries would otherwise seem too novel and risky: “Nothing important has ever been built without irrational exuberance.”

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