Now he's been on the channel several times here on Fudd TV, but I honestly would consider his perspective and the information he's gon na share with you in today's episode to be by far the most important episode. We'Ve ever done together, the almost mind, blowing ly bullish scenario that he presents for Bitcoin is the most positive outlook that he has shared for Bitcoin throughout the entirety of our now almost two years, creating content together a year and a half at least this is required. Viewing for you, if you're in the crypto space or in any kind of investment space, I highly encourage you to take a look at what Mike has to say, as he's gon na present some charts and data that are extremely extremely bullish for Bitcoin. So I hope you guys enjoy this episode. Please support the channel by liking the video and leaving a comment below, because a lot of these social media platforms don't have their normal content, moderators we're, seeing a lot of assault happening on cryptocurrency content and investment content. So by liking the video sharing the video it really helps overcome any potential flags or shadow bands that could be happening on what we consider extremely extremely relevant and necessary information that all of you need to know as we approach these uncharted times in the economy. Thank you so much for coming back on the show and welcome back Mike Malone over there of Bloomberg HQ Fame, but, of course, in quarantine there in Connecticut, how's everything going good, Leo's good to talk to you again and see you yeah been a very long time.
Very exciting stuff obviously happening in the world's uncertain times, yet this could potentially, as far as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, be a turning point in their history and I'm very excited to share your perspective, because this is of course, your expertise is essentially alternative assets or value precious Metals, this is the moment for essentially the assets that you are so well versed in, and I think that your perspective couldn't be more relevant or timely, especially today, on a day where we're seeing Bitcoin up almost 5 and mainstream markets down almost 5. The divorcing of the two assets in a time like this, I think, is significant and I'm very curious. What you have to say about yes, that's word divorce, oh it's kind of scary, lucky I've been kind of immune for him, but not most of our listeners probably hear somebody exposed, but it's it's definitely what's happening, and I think the inflection point was really Thursday. Last week, today's a 23rd Bitcoin started taking up in a bi environment it shouldn't have, and this is something as a traitor, traitor instincts. You just sometimes pick up these little things, pattern, recognition and now gold and Bitcoin are taking off. Today is the best day for gold at the moment up about 4 in about four years and bitcoins up six percent men it's not a lot, but I sense the bottom any process and then end to that margin. Call selling pressure yeah for sure there was the big squeeze that happened as everyone was racing to get their hands on US dollars.
You know that big drop in your mind was that a liquidity sort of squeeze there. People were just trying to get their hands on US dollars. It didn't feel like that drop. Was that significant, or that was not really a reflection on Bitcoin itself right. Oh a Bitcoin came through like flying colors, no limits never stopped trading. I mean if you really think about what happened on a risk, adjusted basis, Bitcoin trades, typically, four times the volatility in stock market. It dropped about the same amount, that's, a divergent sign of string and it's part of that process. I think of Bitcoin transitioning from a risk on acid to a quasi currency, store value like gold. Now, the gold, the correlation to gold, is just spiking and it's diverging with the stock market, and this is typically how things work it's, how wouldn't started in 2008? I remember I was one of my best trading years ever I don't trade, it anymore, which is wonderful. As you could say, you stay up here and I was really long gold and really short the stock market. It hurt that gold for a little while because of the margin, call selling, because most people were just overweight, long, like they were now and it's called goddess selling versus wan na selling and people just had to sell anything gold to, and but it typically, when you Sell fundamentally bullish acid in an environment that's improving for it, it usually makes a good phone and because it flushes out those weak longs because everybody's bullish I mean that my gold, too many people, are bullish, flushes them out, cleanses it and solidifies the foundation so that's.
What I sense in Bitcoin, I don't, want to see it strange, sustained much below for 4500 5000 and in it should really pop to near 10000. 12000 guess what that means: nothing in the big picture, because that's, just where it was a few months ago, last year, it's a consolidating bull market, well, that's awesome and I can't wait to see the charts that you show to give the audience even more depth of Understanding here so with that in mind, I'm gon na hop into the chart, view and I'm really excited to see what you're going to show the audience today so what's going on Mike. We have obviously tremendous uncertainty in the stock market. You'Re. Having certain analysts come out and say this is an unrecognizable dip. For me. I think it is quite recognizable, maybe not particularly in the TA charts right I'm, not a TA guy I'm, not a Chartist per se, but as far as historically you're, seeing the behavior around what all the CEOs did in January you're, seeing the record number of departures. You'Re, seeing essentially Jeff Bezos selling billions of dollars in stock you're, seeing a lot of those indications that kind of smell a lot like 1929 right, where you heard about a lot of the powers that be cashing out, you also had a chart like looking at the Tesla chart and these other stock market charts these other mainstream market charts that that looked like Bitcoin charts.
You know they were just so so bullish for so long. It feels like this is been kind of the writing spin on the ball for this exactly that's. What I'm, showing in this chart right now on the upper right hand, side what you've seen is just so it's to measure it's a 52 week change of the SampP 500 going back looks like I got thirty years here and just a month ago it was the Highest ever the highest I'm sorry and in ten years versus a 52 week average, so the market got too expensive too greedy for the wrong reasons in a bad environment, and unfortunately, people like me, have been looking for this for too long and now we've gone down. Pretty fast as significance, I think, is we're down 20 on a 52 week basis, so look at it this way. A year ago. This information was not in the market and we're down 20. I don't think that's enough and here's how I measure that let's start the financial crisis of 2008 9. The sp500 went down about 50 on a 52 week basis and it will stay down there for six months or so in the internet bubble plunge 2000 2001. It went down about 30, 30, almost 30 in some cases, and stayed down there for about a year. You know new information comes up in the markets to expensive pulls it back and to me that's. All that matters right now is the stock market is ending a significant bull market and it's got a worthy catalyst in the cove.
It 19 bars yeah. I think what you're pointing out here is really important. I had some buddies contact me asking for stock market picks, buy the dip, and I sort of expressed to them like hey, you know, based on all of what we can see here. This is looking like the next installation in a huge, significant long term, pullback and based on the last two of these right 2008, as well as the dot com bubble. These take sort of 6 to 18 months to really start playing out and giving you bullish trends again. Are you expecting something quite similar in this particular case? Oh yeah, I think people I mean this is unprecedented. We can't just guarantee that the virus is gon na disappear in a day or a month that it's not gon na relapse. If we get some kind of antidote, sure that's great but it's, the contraction, economic and economic activity is unprecedent an addition. The problem is, the market was way overdone before it's not like it was cheap. It was historically very expensive. I just look at it. You know sp500 went out for 10 years straight typically. Basically, almost it was a pretty extended bull market and volatility. Just two years ago the VIX Volatility Index, maybe the 50 week average, was the lowest ever it's just mean reverting. So that basis is what's, pulled us down the mean reverting stock market and, at some point, it'll recover in bumps pull down Bitcoin and gold.
In the short turn margin call selling got ta selling got ta, you got to sell, and now they're, starting today to me, is one of the significant days it marks the end of that plunge or that short term plunge temporary plunge in gold in Bitcoin. I put them together, partly because I can show you a little bit in correlations. The correlations are spiking between the two and I think that's this year I think, is gon na mark the transition. We'Re gon na look back at this and say: okay, this year marked the transition from goal I'm from Bitcoin to a risk on asset maturing to a quasi currency, store value like gold and and and that's extremely extremely exciting, especially for people within the Bitcoin and crypto Community who have really been talking about such a moment such an event, a Black Swan event, if you will, I guess, since bitcoins inception, Bitcoin was created in response to the 2008 financial crisis, and so here we are at the moment where Bitcoin is truly supposed to Shine – and it seems like your impression – is that it's truly shining, as as it should be – oh yeah, it's, okay, so let's look at on the year right now. The SampP 500 is down 30 Bitcoin as of right now, yeah, so I'm gon na show you that one second Bitcoin on the year is that is down 11, so risk adjusted volatility. Wise Bitcoin is well outperforming.
Aside, pulled it it's outperforming stock market. Now, yes, it's relative, but the year is far from over. This is, I think, it's you know for the year we're, basically in what the second inning or so so to me, that's a way to look at risk adjusted, and what I show here is what to me is what's part of that maturing significance of Bitcoin. You see in white that's the 260 day volatility of Bitcoin it's, the annual measure divided by the same measure, SampP 500 it's plunging. That means Bitcoin volatility is going down not really going up involved. Stock market bail trains going up, Bitcoin is becoming more mature and typically, when you get bottoms in this, you get in gold that's. Just the chart of Bitcoin divided by the SampP 500 Bitcoin usually takes off now. In this case, it's Bitcoin versus it's stock mark is doing better because dr. Marrs going down harder, but I think it's, more enduring trend – and this plunge in volatility, also shows that typically Bitcoin has in the hist typically in the past, is traded basically eight times the Risk of the stock market now it's down to three so which is just a first iteration. You have here at Sharpe, where you have these three circled areas, and I think that they're significant, because we're now dipping in fact more so into these areas. Then we have any other time except for 2016, which led to the longest sustained bull run encrypted currency history.
Through essentially through the end of 2017, and then the time before that was in 2013 at the end of 2012. Here, where we got one of the most you know, percentage wise, significant bull runs in in any asset history right there, Bitcoin going from you know just a few dollars up to a thousand, and so what it looks like is that we're setting ourselves up for another Expansion of volatility, if this chart is consistent, that would come with a tremendous gain in u.s. dollar value of Bitcoin as well. So look I like the way you put that US dollar value, because to look at the way a professional money manager will look at this and say: oh man here's this new asset, that is very revolutionary and people are starting adopted, it's no longer it's, no longer Immature and volatile is declining and here's. His other asset that I've been trading for our whole career in volatility, is picking up. Hmm, I think that's gon na help change the narrative. What people are gon na say: okay, going for the more solid curl, wise, a currency type assets, and then I didn't think Bitcoin. The only thing, that's kind of really matter because we will discuss this is – is adoption because supply is just plunging on an annual basis. It'S gon na be 2 percent, or so next year, just like gold and then it's gon na go down to de minimis levels. Every year, we're gon na have less and less bitcoins fewer and fewer, so it's.
Why doesn't matter it's a commodity strategist supply demand price. All that matters to me is adoption, yep and, and from this particular point of view, I think a lot of people see adoption and say well, you think, just because it's, a financial crisis, people gon na start transacting in Bitcoin and that's, not the adoption that we're Talking about right, the adoption we're talking about is adopting it as a hard asset. Correct yeah, I don't be a Bitcoin. I I've you at the same pocket as gold. I would never really use gold to buy. I don't hold any physical go like do it most. People just buy an ETF or some kind of gold company, but why Gold's inconvenient to hold in to spend and someone can steal it? You probably don't have guns if you're really that worried, but I'll convert that gold to cash once a while to use that cash, because the cash you have the cash you're earning the government is printing, which they need to do is diminishing the value and always will And it doesn't hurt an interest. Historically, it always gave you some interest. Now we get nothing. So I look at taking that piece of those pieces of paper that the government accepts our taxes and converting and it's just protein to me to diversify that into physical, hard stores and value like property. Like you see, I have here: land, gold and Bitcoin. Things are more liquid and it used to be the stock market.
It still is historically will be for long term, but we just right now: it's only been a month, we're just hitting a generation. Now, where people should have disdain for the stock market, it should have underperformance. Why? Because history is a lesson it almost always does yeah. I think this is a great and just to put a bow on the topic. We were just exploring here. The adoption of Bitcoin people see hey well, my the network's too congested I can't, send a Bitcoin transaction is going to take me 20 minutes. Well, does it take you to do you worry if it takes you 20 minutes to buy a house? Do you worry if it takes you 20 minutes to take out a mortgage or to make a significant investment like these types of major financial decisions or investments? They don't need to happen in real time right, that's, just an end. For the most part, these brokers, like coinbase, like finance, you're, not actually even hitting the blockchain, so you can, you can go and buy your Bitcoin almost immediately. So it kind of to me the adoption that we're talking about for this asset class is almost wholly divorced from the actual tech high throughput sort of actual. You know the metrics around how the chain performs is. Is that how you view it as well yeah? I don't really worry too much about things like the chain, that's sort of smart guys like you, I look at it is like okay.
This is an account that I have that I feel safe with the custody and you know there's, obviously, people's self store and things like that I'm, not really one of those. I trust the exchanges and some of the other funds and things, but I look at it like gold and like my in laws, they own some gold and they bought it about 20 years ago and they're selling, some of it a little bit at a time to Raise cash, but they just held it physically, which I don't want to do next, is look at this asset is it's part of a diversified portfolio and on a global basis, just like this virus, its global it's not, and we have the most stable currency in the World for the rest of the world, it's, not the case yeah and just to go back for one. Second, obviously your feel you. You should store your coins. However, you feel most comfortable, but I feel you know I'd be remiss if I didn't say obviously guys it's a tremendously uncertain time and not your keys, not your coins. So if you can get your coins off those exchanges, you always are gon na sleep tight. Knowing that you have access to them, but we can move forward now we definitely talked a little bit about the global market, not taking a pause right. Our stock market has safety rails on it. We have circuit breakers. We have all these.
You know artificial things that help make sure the stock market stays on its trajectory and doesn't get derailed right, Bitcoin had no circuit breaker, no safety rails, nothing and when the market was going crazy and Anarchy sort of hit that one day last week we saw a Couple hours where Bitcoin was in true freefall and the market itself rebounded without any safety guards. What do you think that says about Bitcoin as a person who came from the trading pits, you just want free, unmanipulated markets that are not artificial and well Bitcoin. I think passed the test it's still early days, that never closed. There was no limits, no circuit breakers and SMB 500 was hitting it. I mean it, just futures hit it last night, it and it came off of it and it. When I hear this talk of people potentially closing the markets, my first thought is: they don't realize what that's gon na do is just gon na make. You know you when you're in a land of the blind, you can see everybody's gon na go to Bitcoin cuz. It will still trade so it's. Look at this. Is it the markets solidified its foundation. This sometimes markets need a good test, it's at a good test, no big Scott coin of 6000. It sure beats 5000, but but it's been through a good test and it's it, because it corrected in the Train and that's what I'm showing right. Now the difference with Bitcoin gold in the stock market is the stock market has been Bitcoin and gold have had their significant shake outs and now they're just recovering, and today was just a minor one.
You know the big shakeout was 2017, so I look at it. Is this the foundation it's firmed and now it's more becoming like okay, where we gon na we're just gon na be a year from now yeah yeah. I think I think it's couldn't be more exciting. I mean, as I the longer I'm in crypto the longer term my viewpoint, my I guess the way I'm thinking of my portfolio stretches it used to be hey. I could make a million dollars in a month if I buy this right off coin now. It'S, hey I'm, trying to amass as much Bitcoin as I can, because I think in 10, 20 years, where this is going is, is so exciting, especially as we're talking about events like you're saying the stock market might stop trading what's. That gon na do for Bitcoin. That could be one of the best things ever for Bitcoin right yeah. This way I look at it as an ex trader. I suggest people don't, you know it's it's, wonderful trading, cuz. It gives you good volatility for moving and stuff, but I'm. You know, look at it just you know. Dollar cost average only look to sell it if you need it or get stupid expensive, which mark ass assets like this almost always do. It has and probably will correct again, but I know I want to transition till. I think what's happening and that's on this chart and what do you were sitters stupid, expensive, like well 2017.
Okay, said anything anything in the twenty thousand dollar range you're, considering that quite expensive? No, I don't mean dollars if it it's not dollars it's relatives. So okay it's, like the stock market, got stupid expensive just a year ago a month ago, and I showed you that earlier that just was dumb I mean and and when the virus is hitting and it's SP fiber was still going up. High up the bail was bringing that okay, this is just kind of crazy and and volatility was still too low, and that happened to it so it's, more relative price and the fact that we've had a almost three year time correction that just builds a foundation. So far as prices, it can go a lot higher, just a Penta is it I mean if it gets and and what I think I can't predict it, but what I'm showing in this chart is we've. Had the correction and gold we've had a recent reset in the stock market Sony's way overdue, it's only starting it's only been a month that it's starting it's it's shake out, and that should last a while yeah it's. I I couldn't agree more. I think that you know the next couple of months, if, if you really want to buy the dip on stock markets which, by the way that's a bull market mentality, buy the dip, I think people misunderstand that, and especially in the times of prolonged bull markets, like We had in the stock market and and crypto back in 1617.
They don't understand that as the markets become truly bear, markets buy the dip isn't, actually a strategy it's. You want to wait for a new market bottom to be established unless you're an amazing trader and can really manage the daily volatility that's. Not what I do. I do what you say, which is I, whenever I have some money ready to deploy, I start averaging into Bitcoin over you know, weeks and and that's. The way I spread out my risk to is: if the price goes up, then you know, maybe I didn't. I should have bought more lower, but in the end, it's a way to make sure if you're spreading out your buys over a period of time, you're getting the benefit of the market yeah exactly yeah, yeah yeah, I just want to emphasize most people will lose trading And if you're trading you're, not a professional there's professions out there, that will that how you learned that in the trading pits they're a bunch of sharks, yeah and you're, just the number on the screen and good luck, and so but that's. Why I look at you know, give me I just – and I just see this as a turning point and this year as the the year we should look back on, is Bitcoin turn to go and now my curious. My key thing is: what should it take to shake that up? So, for instance, I look at a very similar to 2008 Bitcoin dock dropped to 700.
I was bullish, I was long bearish stock market and then – and that was November and once the fatties down to zero, it was, and that was gold. It took off so to me, bitcoins gon na do a similar thing and partly because it's just a simple fundamental, that these two assets, golden Bitcoin, are stores of value, quasi currencies measured in dollars and if you're throwing massive supply of dollars out there. The assets that have limited supply and adoption will win and that's what I see so obviously gold, if we're looking at Bitcoin as a gold asset. Now, as as I think, a lot of people in the community or deuce do look at it. That way. Gold had an amazing run between oh seven, oh eight and twelve, and then it had a massive fall off. Can we explain or analyze that that's sort of what that run up was? Obviously, you talked about the Fed cutting to zero those factors that created the the run up. How long do you see this process being of you know, essentially, quantitative easing low interest rates and creating more value weakening the dollar versus hard assets like property, gold Bitcoin? How long do you see that process potentially taking? How long is this? Could this take that's a play out from a low side to a high side, so gold rally from 2000 to 2011? It peaked 2011 and it got stupid expensive, so 2011, it peaked around 1900 dropped around a thousand in 2015.
It bottomed the day. The Fed first started. Tightening now remember that. Well, because I was fired from my other job right around that time, because you know I was bullish, gold yeah so but it's classic you mean I knew the day I was fired. I shoulda just bought more but and because it got too expensive and then we had this long period where everybody just it's all tension went to that's the only place to be now transitioning back and the significance is Gold's had its correction. Now we didn't have you know. Now we have Bitcoin and they're in the same bucket, so that's. What I'm showing this chart is in white. You have Bitcoin in gold, you have gold it's, a weekly chart in the bottom that's a 52 week correlation. So you don't have to take my word for it. You can see it in the chart. There'S somewhat correlated the 52 way correlations jump to the highest. Ever I mean you can see in the chart. The two lines become extraordinarily similar, as it gets closer to the modern, the modern moment here, not so much correlation back there, but as we get towards the 2020 moment here that looks like they're there. They are moving in in synchronous, yes, iyo, as we speak, I'm gon na put one chart. That is to me the most profound chart I've been watching for years or showing a second and why we have a problem with the stock market, and that is just I'm.
Showing you, the VIX Volatility Index, will be in a second thing and it's I'm, showing you I'm moving it a weekly moving average for a hundred weeks, which would I put that a honey moving average and we put it over here and what you see. Obviously, it's going up, i mean maximize that I would just put this back to the beginning of the banks. I remember sitting at a dinner table with this guy who's, starting it so here's, the body here's the VIX right now. This is a hundred week average. You know you look at here's a below here's a high. Do you want to buy that or sell that? I remember I did a presentation a few times. I just put the opposite. I put it upside down and everybody agreed. So what happened here just 2018 that's a hundred week average of the VIX that was the lowest ever yeah, and you can see that right here it says low that January 2018 and one lessons I learned in trading pitches about only always mean reverting so got the Lowest ever what does that reflect human nature and human emotions? Everybody thinks the stock market's gon na go up forever. Greed overtakes now we have fear fear is VIX, is just going up to its mean now during the 2008 crash it peak 32 guess what happened. Bitcoin was, you know, was born part of that crash and right before that happened 2007 it did the same thing and got very low.
This is when I started getting short and bearish, and it was tough because this is when the housing market you know I was losing money it's when the stock housing market stopped stopped started going down. So all we're doing is repeating history but it's worse now, because we have this covert virus and in some cases we have the rest of the world's already gone. The zero interest rates, which helps Bitcoin we and we have quantitative easing at levels we've, never seen and we're gon na have a global potential, severe recession and some people might say recession. The problem is the the underlying makeup of deflationary trends were bad before the kovat hit. This is just accelerating what you see here. It just needed a catalyst. It was kind of like the the stage had been set for a tremendous tremendous drawdown. I mean I've I've. Even made a few videos about all of the clearing red flags in the stock market, mainstream markets, we just didn't – know that it would hit in such a cataclysmic way. So, looking at that chart that you just showed it seems like just to equal the draw downs of 2008. We would have a long long ways to go, and what you're saying is what I think is more accurate is this is probably the percentage likelihood is that this could be quite quite a bit worse and so looking at this volatility, we have quite a bunch of Volatility left.
We have yeah we're sitting at about 17 point to 8. It got to about 35, there. 30, 32 yeah so it's a good example, so it recently peaked on a daily basis at the highest ever lady buy everything had got to and it did that 2008 when Lehman collapse. It peaked around 82. I remember the guys sitting next to me sold some. I wasn't they get so it's a hundred week average, so it's it's slow moving but it's just how it works. It just things work in cycles, so that's. What I want to show here just going back up and it you know, and the virus is a good enough reason for make that go up, but it's self, a funny so what's going to happen. The stock market, as it goes down, it's, going to be a negative wealth effect. Yes and there's too many people long too many people 401ks too many people who thought that they would not have to risk one third and maybe 50 and it's. Typically, what you need to worry about and so that negative wealth affection lasts so well. So what happened? The last time the Fed went to zero was they stayed there for about let's, see in 2007 years, 2008 until 2015, and this time I don't see why they're not gon na stay there for 10 years and why? Because that's, a trend and every interest you know bond the okay German interest rates are zero.
Japanese interest rates went to zero, they're all it's, just a trend. Your friend it's going that way and here's like I'll just transition to this chart. This is a simple chart of the plunge in the SampP 500 and Bitcoin, potentially bottoming right their last plunge. They went down together and the initial spike, but Bitcoin actually now diverging yep. So let's break this down. What does it all mean for Bitcoin? What is what does all this mean if, if Fed goes to, zero stays is zero? If you know we obviously we're gon na be printing money, we're hearing this kind of unprecedented language, I think that the the communications out of the Fed and the White House I feel like are unprecedented. It felt like during the 2008 collapse, there was a little bit more of caution, almost a stubbornness, to enact certain measures, but this time it feels like things are getting put through at an extremely fast pace and that the the the verbiage is somewhere around limitless stimulus. Infinite stimulus have you ever heard of that kind of communication coming out of the Fed, and what does it make you feel like? We could be looking at as far as how it would affect these hard asset markets? Well, the most notable example is that obviously the 2008 crisis, one of my favorite books – has been Ben Bernanke's book the courage to act and it's just a replay, but in more extreme cases now not only because its global, but because it's a contraction, economic activity.
That'S. Almost it's, typically it's, actually unprecedent we've, never shut down the whole world like this. Making people just you know, it's hurting the little people, so, unfortunately people you know who have less you know, hand them off type person, so that means rates are zero. In the past, you could hold your dollars in an account and you got interest rates interest, which is good because your dollars values actually depreciating, but you got that interest. So when people compare it to gold, they miss the fact that, okay, you have to add the value of that interest. You earned in the dollar to measure the value. Now you don't get that at all and you might not get it for a long time. So sustained period of very low rates, massive money, printing – you want hard assets. You want to take that money and put least it's prudent to put it in hard assets: land real estate, maybe that's the stock market so much long term, yes, but be careful because that's gon na be hurt for a while gold and Bitcoin and other things. But you know solid physical asset said I'm, not gon na depreciate in value. So following your logic about gold, essentially having it's big it's, big drawdown as the Fed started, tightening again what what do you think? That would mean if we do stay at zero interest rate? Let'S, just hypothetically, if we're at zero interest rates for ten years, would that mean that the next ten years would be fundamentally bullish for a golden Bitcoin, yeah? Well, you're setting me up for that one yeah yeah clearly, and so the only thing that really is gon na matter then is adoption and almost all the signs are there and what's put it this way.
If we had all the good custodial situations in place, like you, do in a stock market better be too late, the mark would have gone. A bit was probably already gone up a lot. The fact that they were not in place it's still an infant. I actually would say: oh it's, a crappy having a lot of kids, I'd, say it's kind of more of a young teenager who's, just sowing its oats and that's the opportunity. Sure you could lose everything. Something can go wrong, but that's life. You have a kid. The kid can die – and I always hope my dad before my kids, but that it's just like any investment but consider that and then understand that as part of a diversified portfolio it should and if you're right it should go up. Many X's it's a question of time and I don't like to go too far into how far but hoots simplistically look at Gold's bitcoins around 6000, the highest 20 it's, a just getting back to the old high, gives you 2x that's nothing new that's. Why? I look at it. It'S had its Corrections had it set back, it can, i you know realistically can look at it, should double from these levels and mean not lean. It'S matte gold doubling, would mean something cuz it's above all time, new huh, yeah completely and then obviously there there would be the emotional effect as well. If all the mainstream markets are collapsing, and even we could see that, based on the way our economy actually works.
De facto, even though property should be sustaining sustaining its value, the markets, the way that they are artificially sort of overcooked, there could be a huge setback in the housing market in the next coming years. If, if things don't really turn around, therefore you'd imagine Bitcoin could end up being and gold, one of the only assets that's really set to do well, I hope you're wrong and I said I fear you're gon na be right here's the way I look at housing And property, typically, if you look at you as farm it pretty closely that's raw farmland, you know the essence of a pure real estate. Investment is raw farmland. It typically follows gold, because it's just a raw piece of land, there's, no property taxes and you can produce income from cash renting it. So you look at a home. I look at interest rates. Stained vary loaf longer. The problem recently is: mortgage rates have actually spiked. Although because the problem, but as a stay, much lower, it's much easier, there's, a certain point when rates are really low and you're allowed to borrow a lot with pieces of paper and convert it to physical assets. You'Re just supposed to do that to a certain extent. Because that physical asset appreciate and if they're printing a lot of money you're supposed to take that supply, so I think because rates are very low now in a recession, housing using is potent work does does not do well, but because rates are lower and declining in The long term, I think housing and real estate should do fine yeah why I certainly hope you're right as well, but there is certainly a risk and I've.
Certainly, analyses that show the over leveraging within the housing market is as vulnerable as it was back in 2008, which is of course, oh boy. That was, that was a big problem right. It was the over leveraging and and mismanagement of debt. No matter what it all seems to be coalescing to be a bullish scenario for Bitcoin, no matter which way you're, slicing this and and that's in all the segments that we've had you on this show. I don't think I've heard you express a more clear and more bullish. Narrative for Bitcoin yeah, well, it's had a correction and it was a little bit expensive around 10000 and I'm. Again, I think it's gon na go through it, but you got ta be careful, but now we're at 6000. We depth in therefore it's had its correction and the fundamentals are bullish and that's. One thing I'm showing in the chart right now is, is I call it like it's like the three amigos of appreciation you have Bitcoin bond prices and gold and that's what you see in the far in in the magenta and gold and aqua that's. The 50 week averages of those they're all kind of same so it doesn't matter, but they're. All preached approach appreciating yeah a little bit of dips but what's. Turning down that's a 50 week average of the SampP 500 it's simplistic, and to be simplistic it's, intended to show you a trend shift and the likelihood that the other one other trends will probably sorry yeah.
I know this is probably gon na push you a little out of your your comfort zone here, but I like, when you do that. Do you think there's a do you think this heightens the chance of an ETF for Bitcoin, a more simple mechanism for investors? Obviously we have gbtc, which you could argue, is a fairly direct investment for a stock market. You know traders, but obviously the ETF is, has widely been viewed as the holy grail for the next step of custodial trading. For your your average, Joe and and more mainstream investors, do you think this whole situation is is bodes well for that I don't think it makes much of a difference. Etfs are really get hammered now in many ways, the triple leveraged ones are just they're going out, like they're being thrown among some of them being thrown out with the bath water. What, yes, what you need for an ETF for SARS understand is regulated exchanges and I thought a futures would be the first kind of ramp there, because you can track the futures. I mean I come from an environment, we create indices, attract futures. I used to do that at SP, running the commodity and you sees all come on and these attractive futures accept gold. So I think it's gon na come um and I think once the futures, volume and it's not enough yet, but the trend is clearly up so it to me it's just a matter of time and then of course, that's more mainstream and it just but being able To get the physical, Bitcoin and ETF seems so the while, because for a while, because SEC makes a good point, these are not regulated exchanges until that happens, but I threw the futures I think it's gon na be a matter of time.
I mean don't know it does seem exciting, though, of course, if, if you can view this, all as an adolescent phase, still for Bitcoin right, where we still don't even have enough regulation for them to make an ETF and someone in the community would say that that's, You know art that we do or that we don't – I mean I'm, not here to debate, that I just think that opportunity of balance right now and if we can distill your message now for the audience into its final words of advice. What do you say to anyone watching this who's, a normal investor, a crypto investor, from your perspective sum up? What are we doing here in March end of March of 2020? The the fundamental backdrop for Bitcoin and gold is improving with unprecedented quantitative easing in the US, which is following zero interest rates in the rest of the world. That'S, a positive price appreciation factor for most, notably Bitcoin and gold, and I don't see what it's gon na take in the short term to stop that and I'm fearful it's, just gon na get more aggressive and push these prices higher and bottom line. Also by the time there is enough maturity in the market 42f. The price of Bitcoin should be much higher and I'd say that should be because that's just part of the maturing process of this NASA asset class. Well, as usual, your perspective is extremely extremely valued and very much so appreciate.
Thank you so much for coming on the show, I hope you're staying safe and healthy over there in Connecticut, and we look forward to having you back as we sort of plow through these uncharted territories. These uncharted waters here and these alternative and mainstream markets. So, thank you so much Mike. Thank You Allan it's good talking again. Well, I hope you guys enjoyed that. I know I certainly did if you did please, like the video leave a comment and, of course, if you're not subscribed hit that sub button. As usual, my name's Elio trades – you guys – are watching flood TV I'm going to be doing my best to bring you up to date. Information throughout this financial crisis that we're going through this unprecedented reaction to the corona virus. There'S a lot of information. We need to be passing around.